Arkansas St.

Conference:	SB
Expected RPI:	291.0
Current RPI:	291
Expected SOS:	257
Current SOS:	257
Current Record:	9-21
Expected Record:	9-21
Current Conf Record:	6-13
Expected Conf Record:	6-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-10
Current OOC Record:	3-8
Expected OOC Record:	3-8
Expected OOC RPI:	314
Expected OOC SOS:	326

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
9-21	291.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arkansas St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Evansville (151.0)	MVC	A	77-63	L	0%
11-13	Abilene Christian (260.0)	Slnd	H	83-69	W	100%
11-16	Eastern Michigan (116.0)	MAC	A	76-59	L	0%
11-20	Howard (339.0)	MEAC	H	92-78	W	100%
11-22	Indiana (125.0)	B10	A	87-70	L	0%
11-24	South Florida (278.0)	Amer	A	72-61	L	0%
11-29	Cleveland St. (282.0)	Horz	A	75-72	L	0%
12-5	Tennessee Martin (306.0)	OVC	H	78-92	L	0%
12-13	Nebraska Omaha (284.0)	Sum	A	77-74	L	0%
12-16	Florida Atlantic (275.0)	CUSA	A	63-64	W	100%
12-19	Wichita St. (16.0)	Amer	A	89-80	L	0%
12-29	Louisiana Monroe (219.0)	SB	H	75-64	W	100%
12-31	Louisiana Lafayette (63.0)	SB	H	78-88	L	0%
1-4	Georgia Southern (140.0)	SB	A	80-49	L	0%
1-6	Georgia St. (120.0)	SB	A	79-75	L	0%
1-11	Texas St. (243.0)	SB	H	67-73	L	0%
1-13	UT Arlington (108.0)	SB	H	71-97	L	0%
1-20	Little Rock (308.0)	SB	A	62-70	W	100%
1-25	Coastal Carolina (246.0)	SB	A	62-47	L	0%
1-27	Appalachian St. (250.0)	SB	A	88-93	W	100%
2-1	Georgia St. (120.0)	SB	H	66-77	L	0%
2-3	Georgia Southern (140.0)	SB	H	91-89	W	100%
2-8	Troy (194.0)	SB	A	89-83	L	0%
2-10	South Alabama (270.0)	SB	A	87-67	L	0%
2-17	Little Rock (308.0)	SB	H	78-82	L	0%
2-22	Appalachian St. (250.0)	SB	H	82-79	W	100%
2-24	Coastal Carolina (246.0)	SB	H	81-88	L	0%
3-1	Louisiana Lafayette (63.0)	SB	A	85-74	L	0%
3-3	Louisiana Monroe (219.0)	SB	A	79-83	W	100%
3-7	Louisiana Monroe (219.0)	SB	N	76-54	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arkansas St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Arkansas St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Arkansas St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Arkansas St.	SB	26.33	26.33	31.62	31.62	-9.68	-9.68
Louisiana Monroe	SB	5.70	5.70	48.00	48.00	-0.23	-0.23
Little Rock	SB	4.21	4.21	17.86	17.86	-2.71	-2.71
Georgia Southern	SB	4.16	4.16	62.07	62.07	1.00	1.00
Appalachian St.	SB	4.13	4.13	44.83	44.83	-0.43	-0.43
Georgia St.	SB	4.13	4.13	66.67	66.67	1.38	1.38
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	4.11	4.11	79.31	79.31	2.41	2.41
Coastal Carolina	SB	4.04	4.04	33.33	33.33	-1.35	-1.35
UT Arlington	SB	2.71	2.71	59.38	59.38	0.51	0.51
Texas St.	SB	2.69	2.69	40.00	40.00	-0.54	-0.54
Troy	SB	2.63	2.63	43.33	43.33	-0.35	-0.35
South Alabama	SB	2.58	2.58	37.93	37.93	-0.62	-0.62
South Florida	Amer	1.86	1.86	29.03	29.03	-0.78	-0.78
Howard	MEAC	1.75	1.75	26.67	26.67	-0.82	-0.82
Indiana	B10	1.75	1.75	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	1.75	1.75	57.14	57.14	0.25	0.25
Abilene Christian	Slnd	1.69	1.69	46.15	46.15	-0.13	-0.13
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	1.69	1.69	33.33	33.33	-0.56	-0.56
Wichita St.	Amer	1.69	1.69	77.42	77.42	0.93	0.93
Cleveland St.	Horz	1.67	1.67	30.30	30.30	-0.66	-0.66
Evansville	MVC	1.67	1.67	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	1.67	1.67	21.43	21.43	-0.95	-0.95
Tennessee Martin	OVC	1.67	1.67	25.00	25.00	-0.83	-0.83
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.20	0.20	63.33	63.33	0.05	0.05
SMU	Amer	0.19	0.19	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.16	0.16	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Akron	MAC	0.16	0.16	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.16	0.16	17.24	17.24	-0.11	-0.11
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.16	0.16	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	Amer	0.16	0.16	61.76	61.76	0.04	0.04
Tulane	Amer	0.16	0.16	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.15	0.15	80.00	80.00	0.09	0.09
Lamar	Slnd	0.15	0.15	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.14	0.14	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Missouri St.	MVC	0.14	0.14	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.14	0.14	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Oakland	Horz	0.13	0.13	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Houston	Amer	0.13	0.13	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.12	0.12	8.00	8.00	-0.10	-0.10
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.12	0.12	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
TCU	B12	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.12	0.12	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.12	0.12	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Drake	MVC	0.11	0.11	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.11	0.11	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
New Orleans	Slnd	0.11	0.11	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.11	0.11	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.11	0.11	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Toledo	MAC	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
UTEP	CUSA	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.11	0.11	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Iowa	B10	0.11	0.11	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.11	0.11	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Mississippi	SEC	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Temple	Amer	0.10	0.10	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
UCF	Amer	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Cincinnati	Amer	0.10	0.10	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
East Carolina	Amer	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.10	0.10	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.09	0.09	30.77	30.77	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Tech	B12	0.09	0.09	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.09	0.09	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
Charlotte	CUSA	0.09	0.09	17.86	17.86	-0.06	-0.06
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.09	0.09	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.09	0.09	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	32.00	32.00	-0.03	-0.03
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	CAA	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.08	0.08	24.24	24.24	-0.04	-0.04
Western Carolina	SC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.08	0.08	87.88	87.88	0.06	0.06
Rutgers	B10	0.08	0.08	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	Amer	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.07	0.07	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Wright St.	Horz	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.06	0.06	12.50	12.50	-0.05	-0.05
Lipscomb	ASun	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Denver	Sum	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	82.76	82.76	0.04	0.04
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Vermont	AE	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.06	0.06	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Robert Morris	NEC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Davidson	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
George Mason	A10	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Hawaii	BW	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
VCU	A10	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Montana	BSky	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	15.62	15.62	-0.04	-0.04
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
IUPUI	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
USC Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.02	0.02
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
LSU	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Syracuse	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Maryland	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Pacific	WCC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Penn	Ivy	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
California	P12	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	CAA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
BYU	WCC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	BE	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00